Archive for the 'Financial Market' Category

There’s No Simple Answer

Posted by KoolAidMan on January 7th, 2008

Forbes reports that US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said there’s no simple answer to the housing crisis.

“By preventing avoidable foreclosures, we will safeguard neighborhoods and communities and fulfill our responsibility of protecting the broader U.S. economy,” Paulson said in excerpts of his speech released by Treasury. “However, let me be clear: there is no single or simple solution that will undo the excesses of the last few years.”

On top of that, there’s some talk at CNN that Wall Street is calling for the Fed to lower interest rates again.

The government reported December employment figures on Friday. Only 18,000 jobs were added to the nation’s payrolls while economists were predicting job growth of 70,000. What’s more, the unemployment rate was expected to come in at 4.8 percent, up from 4.7 percent in November.

As a result of these gloomy numbers, expectations for a half-point rate cut grew Friday morning. According to futures listed on the Chicago Board of Trade, investors are pricing in a 84 percent chance that the Fed will lower the federal funds rates by 50 basis points, to 3.75 percent, at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on January 30.

It seems there’s no simple answer to any of the issues our economy is facing. In other news, Marketwatch is reporting that Anheuser Busch shipments to wholesalers are up 2%. With all the turmoil in the stock market and housing market, are people drinking their worries away? That’s a simple (although temporary) solution!

Do Commercial Banks Get It?

Posted by KoolAidMan on December 21st, 2007

Financial Times has a nice op-ed that discusses how despite liquidity injections from the central banks, commercial banks still can’t manage to straighten their mess out. (the full article was available earlier, but now requires free registration to be read in its entirety)

The combined central bank injection of liquidity last week was impressive. Still, more than five months after the interbank market froze, banks’ thirst for cash seems unquenchable. The central banks have done everything they can to keep financial markets orderly. They took the risk of feeding the moral hazard beast and what did they achieve? So far they have avoided the much-feared “Big Crunch”, but the end of the tunnel is not yet in sight. The time has come to ask the harder question: do commercial banks get it?

What are they drinking? We have an idea.

Obviously, shareholders do not like the dilution of their stakes, but this is what shareholding is all about. If a company has suffered, or is about to suffer, heavy losses, its shareholders will have to bear part of the trouble. Delaying tactics prolong the misery without solving the problem, which will not go away.

Shareholders have no problem enjoying immense profits during good times. It’s nice to see someone point out how delay tactics have no real effect in solving the problems. We’ve heard many delay tactics proposed for the mortgage markets such as bailouts and temporary rate freezes, but ultimately they have no effect on solving the problem.

Drinking Is Believing

Posted by KoolAidMan on December 19th, 2007

Apologies to our regular readers who came here and didn’t see any new material in almost a week. The KoolAidMan was on another mini-vacation, hitting the slopes in Utah for an adventurous weekend, returning with a minor cold that required some additional recovery time.

One observation the KoolAidMan made, just by looking and listening, was that the housing bubble we’ve grown to love is much bigger than most people imagine. Stay tuned later in the week for the exact details.

Today is one of those days where there’s some mainstream news that makes this post’s title worthy of sharing the name of this site: DRINKING IS BELIEVING! CNN is reporting that Wall Street analysts are living in a fantasy land (and drinking the fruity red liquid).

Maybe Wall Street analysts are more honest and less compromised than they were pre-SarbOx, but recent events show that they’re still awful at their most important job: predicting bad news. They haven’t lost their habit of falling in love with the companies they cover and refusing to face unpleasant realities until everyone else has already done so. Now, eight years after they were inflating the bubble, we again have to question whether analysts do retail investors any good.

The latest evidence: Analysts have only just discovered that corporate profits in the fourth quarter aren’t going to be nearly as strong as they had supposed a month or two ago.

Drink, and ye shall believe! In other news, Morgan Stanley is writing off more losses and reporting a first quarterly loss ever.

Morgan Stanley posted its first quarterly loss ever Wednesday and stunned the rest of Wall Street by taking additional $5.7 billion mortgage-related writedown, while announcing a $5 billion cash injection from a Chinese state-run investment fund.

If you’re interested in setting up a site to track the mortgage and real estate loss writedowns by the big banks, email me and I’ll be glad to help you get it up and running!

More Bad News

Posted by KoolAidMan on December 12th, 2007

CNN is running an article with the headline “More Bad News From The Banks” which informs us that more banks are warning of bigger than expected writedowns which may result in disappointing quarterly results.

Among the first to issue a warning was Bank of America CEO Kenneth Lewis, who said that the company now expected to report bigger-than-expected writedowns in the fourth quarter.

“You certainly can assume results will be disappointing,” he said. “But we do expect to be profitable in the fourth quarter.”

Crosstown rival Wachovia (Charts, Fortune 500) followed suit, warning in an SEC filing that the value of its loan-backed securities lost $1.34 billion in value during the month of October and November, roughly equal to what the Charlotte-based bank reported when it delivered its third-quarter results in October.

Now that this news has been let out of the closet, the financial situation of these distressed banks should turn around next quarter. All major losses related to bad mortgages have been written off and accounted for, right?