Archive for the 'Stock Market' Category

Is this the end?

Posted by KoolAidMan on March 31st, 2008

CNNMoney.com is reporting a doom-and-gloom scenario that highlights the chaos on Wall Street caused by banks’ fear of loss threatening to bring down the financial system.

We’re suffering the aftereffects of the collapse of a Tinker Bell financial market, one that depended heavily on borrowed money that has now vanished like pixie dust. Like Tink, the famous fairy from Peter Pan, this market could exist only as long as everyone agreed to believe in it.

So because it was convenient - and oh, so profitable! - players embraced fantasies like U.S. house prices never falling and cheap short-term money always being available. They created, bought, and sold, for huge profits, securities that almost no one understood. And they goosed their returns by borrowing vast amounts of money.

How is this slowdown different from other slowdowns? Normally the economy goes bad first, creating financial problems. In this slowdown the markets are dragging down the economy - a crucial distinction, because markets are harder to fix than the economy.

A leading political economist, Allan Meltzer of Carnegie Mellon, calls it “an unusual situation, but not unprecedented.” When was the last time it happened in the U.S.? “In 1929,” he says. And it touched off the Great Depression.

We’re not going to paraphrase the entire article. We’d love to add some insightful KoolAidMan commentary, however the article speaks for itself echoing many of the statements that Drinking Is Believing has been providing since its inception.

So, after all this, we end up with the same old story. Whenever you see a financially driven boom and people tell you, “This time it’s different,” don’t listen. It’s never different. Sooner or later, the bubble pops, as it has now. And you and I end up paying for it.

Drinking is believing…

Substantial Action

Posted by KoolAidMan on January 24th, 2008

Big apologies to our regular readers. The KoolAidMan took off on a last minute vacation halfway around the world, in the middle of the Pacific Ocean to be exact.

He’s had very little access to the internet and mainstream news, choosing to go hiking, diving, and fishing instead, but boy was he shocked to turn on the TV to hear the latest news from the Federal Reserve!

Just prior to leaving on this last minute yet well needed vacation, we made a post which mentioned that the Federal Reserve was “ready to take ’substantive additional action’ to cut interest rates in order to support lagging economy.” Well now we see they weren’t kidding around.

Will a major rate cut solve any problems, or is it merely a Band-Aid to temporarily delay an inevitable downturn?

Stay tuned as the KoolAidMan has much more to post in the next day or two related to the Real Estate market in a U.S. territory out in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. Over here it looks just like California only three years behind!

Citi: A $9.8 Billion Loss

Posted by KoolAidMan on January 15th, 2008

CNN reports that Citibank delivered its worst quarterly results in its history with a $9.8B loss.

The financial giant also announced a writedown of $18.1 billion related to soured mortgage investments and a 41 percent cut to its dividend. At the same time, it said it was receiving a $12.5 billion infusion from investors in Kuwait, Singapore and the state of New Jersey.

Citi’s top line took a big hit. The company reported revenue of $7.2 billion for the quarter, down 70 percent from $23.8 billion a year earlier.

The results were far worse than forecast. Analysts had expected the company to report a loss of $1 a share on revenue of $10.64 billion, according to analysts surveyed by earnings tracker Thomson Financial.

Earnings Chart

Think about this for a moment: revenue for this quarter was down 70% since same period last year. Seventy percent is quite a large number.

Citigroup’s stock endured one of its worst annual performances on record last year and was the worst performing Dow component in 2007. Its shares finished the year down 47 percent.

It seems that some investors see this as an opportunity to get in near the bottom. Are things going to turn around for Citi (and the financial sector overall), or are there much deeper problems that have yet to surface?

Buckle up, for we have an interesting year ahead of us.

Wall Street Bracing For Bad Bank Earnings

Posted by KoolAidMan on January 9th, 2008

CNN (among nearly all mainstream media outlets) is reporting that investors are bracing for a tough week as the nation’s biggest banks are releasing quarterly earnings reports.

“It’s not going to be a pretty sight,” said Frank Barkocy, director of research at the investment advisory firm Mendon Capital Advisors in New York, which owns shares of a number of large banks including Bank of America and Washington Mutual.

Of the five banks and brokers scheduled to report results next week, three are expected to post a fourth-quarter loss - Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Washington Mutual (WM, Fortune 500). JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) are expected to report a decline in quarterly earnings.

Once this is over, can we put the problems behind us? Or are we just seeing the tip of the iceberg?

One area of concern among analysts covering mortgage-focused banks like Washington Mutual and Wells Fargo is how these companies’ commercial real estate portfolios are holding up, an area that some suspect could be the next trouble spot in the credit markets.

“If it does happen, that’s another whole leg down for these banks,” said Paul Miller, an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., regarding the possibility of a commercial real estate slump.

“If it does happen”? “Possibility of a commercial real estate slump”? We recall reading not too long ago that office vacancy rates were already increasing, indicating a ’slump’ is underway.